A new Florida poll shows the U.S. Senate race locked at 45% to 45%, signaling a true toss-up in a state many thought was settled.
Story Snapshot
- Florida Politics reports a St. Pete Polls survey with Ashley Moody and Angie Nixon tied at 45% among likely voters.
- The raw result has Moody up by four-tenths of a point before rounding, underscoring how close the race is.
- Other recent polls still show Moody holding a modest lead, highlighting mixed signals across surveys.
- Polling averages continue to rate Moody ahead overall, despite the new tied topline.
A Tied Poll Reframes Florida’s Senate Contest
Florida Politics published a new St. Pete Polls survey that puts Republican Senator Ashley Moody and Democratic Representative Angie Nixon at 45% each among likely general election voters. The outlet notes the pre-rounding edge favors Moody by less than one point, which explains the appearance of a dead heat. The finding matters because it cuts against the view that Florida is off the table. It shows a path for both parties and hints that turnout and late deciders could decide the race.
Change Research, in a separate survey noted by Florida Politics, also found a tie at 47% to 47% in early September, suggesting the contest can land within a narrow band across different methods. That said, no single poll tells the whole story. In the same window, national and state trackers have shown Moody with a small but steady edge. The lesson is simple: Florida’s numbers are moving within a slim range, and small shifts can swing headlines without changing the core trajectory.
What Other Polls and Averages Say Right Now
The New York Times polling roundup shows a Quantus Insights survey conducted September 8–10 with Moody leading Nixon 50% to 43%, a seven-point gap that contrasts with the tied result. Pollsmax’s forecast, which blends multiple polls, currently projects Moody at 52.8% and Nixon at 47.3%, a Republican advantage of 5.5 points. These broader snapshots point to a race where the mean favors Moody, even as single polls occasionally show parity.
Why can both be true? Different pollsters sample different voters, apply different screens for likely voters, and field at different moments. Florida Politics also highlighted that the St. Pete Polls tie was a rounding artifact, with Moody a fraction ahead in the raw tally. Small gaps can look large when they break a headline. In short, Florida’s Senate race is competitive, and the data range—tie to mid-single-digit Moody lead—fits that picture across the last several weeks.
What a Near-Dead Heat Means for Voters
A near-dead heat forces both campaigns to talk to the middle. Voters who worry about rising prices, health costs, and energy bills want direct plans, not slogans. Supporters on the right want border control, lower spending, and cheaper fuel. Supporters on the left want protection for social programs, fair wages, and equal treatment under the law. Many on both sides also feel that powerful insiders ignore them. A tight race gives those swing voters real leverage to demand answers.
Shocking Florida election odds: Angie Nixon pays $1200 for every $100 bet ($120 for every $10 bet) @BetOnline_ag as new poll shows the Democrat in dead heat in that state senate race @DaveMasonBOL https://t.co/O3tm2X2I1C pic.twitter.com/98SIBtpnQ2
— gambling911 (@gambling911) September 18, 2026
In this climate, small changes in turnout or trust can make the difference. Polls are snapshots, not destiny. When one survey ties and another shows a lead, that tells us persuasion and mobilization still matter. It also reminds us how rounding and margins can turn tiny shifts into big headlines. The best way to read the moment is to weigh both the tied result and the broader averages. Right now, the averages lean to Moody, but the tied poll shows this race is still in play.
Sources:
mediaite.com, floridapolitics.com, floridaphoenix.com
