Russia Failed—So Why Is War Ongoing?

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Russia failed to achieve its main war goals in Ukraine, but the fighting is still shaping Europe’s security and America’s next moves.

Quick Take

James Carafano said Russia failed to conquer and destroy Ukraine and also failed to break NATO apart.
Recent analysis says Russia has made only limited gains despite heavy costs in troops, money, and time.
Other major conflict trackers still describe the war as active, not finished.
The debate now centers on whether “strategic failure” is enough to call the war over.

Russia’s Limited Gains, Heavy Costs

James Carafano argued that Russia’s core goals in Ukraine have failed. He said Moscow did not conquer and destroy Ukraine, did not break NATO apart, and instead won only small territorial gains at a very high cost. That framing matters because it treats the war less like a fast battlefield race and more like a long grind that exposed Russian weakness while leaving Ukraine still standing.

That argument is not the same as saying the war has ended in any formal sense. The Council on Foreign Relations still describes the conflict as ongoing, and the Carnegie-linked and other strategic reviews in the research package also describe active combat, continuing strikes, and unresolved territorial claims. In other words, Carafano’s claim is about strategic outcome, not a ceasefire, peace deal, or military surrender.

Why Supporters Say Putin Lost

Supporters of the “Putin lost” view point to the gap between Russia’s aims and its results. The research package says Russia advanced only about 50 kilometers from late February 2024 to early January 2026, while Russia also kept pushing deeper into eastern and southeastern Ukraine. Other sources say Ukraine remained resilient, kept offensive pressure on Russian infrastructure, and avoided collapse despite the scale of the war.

The same research also says Russia’s gains in 2025 were small compared with the time and force spent. One strategic review says Russia would need many more months to seize the remaining territory it claims in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia, while another says the Russian military’s early hopes for a quick success failed because Ukraine resisted and adapted. That is the strongest factual case for calling Russia the loser so far.

Why the War Still Is Not “Over”

The hardest part of Carafano’s framing is the word “over.” The research package itself notes that fighting continues and that Russia still holds a large share of Ukrainian territory. That creates a clear tension. A war can be a strategic failure for one side and still remain active on the ground, especially when neither side accepts the current border or the terms of a settlement.

While Zaluzhnyi provides a welcome reality check to ground public expectations, his refusal to admit Russia is actively losing exposes a flawed theory of victory potentially driven by political ambition rather than raw military analysis.

Zaluzhnyi’s op-ed in The Telegraph has… pic.twitter.com/XeFIm8XHFh

— Joni Askola (@joni_askola) July 8, 2026

That tension explains why many analysts still avoid declaring the conflict finished. The research package shows that major institutions continue to describe the war as attritional, unresolved, and tied to future talks over territory and security guarantees. It also shows that broader debate over modern war favors ambiguity over clean endings, which helps explain why this argument draws strong support from some experts and resistance from others.

What This Means Beyond Ukraine

The deeper issue is not just who wins a headline fight. It is what the war says about power, propaganda, and the limits of force in a nuclear age. The research package points to Russia’s failed blitz on Kyiv, Ukraine’s survival, NATO’s intact posture, and Russia’s costly progress. Those facts fuel a larger warning: governments can spend enormous blood and money and still fail to get the result they promised.

That is why the story lands with readers across the political spectrum. People who distrust elites see another case of leaders selling grand plans that do not match reality. People who back Ukraine see proof that a smaller nation can survive a larger aggressor. Both reactions can fit the same facts. What remains unsettled is not whether Russia fell short, but whether that shortfall already counts as the end.