A forecast model released by Decision Desk HQ and The Hill on Wednesday predicts that former President Donald Trump and the Republican Party are favored to win the White House and secure majorities in both the House and Senate in the upcoming 2024 election.

Less than six months before Election Day, the model gives Trump a 58% chance of reclaiming the presidency, with the GOP having a 79% chance of taking back control of the Senate and a 64% chance of maintaining their majority in the House.

The forecast, which builds upon the framework of Decision Desk HQ’s successful 2020 and 2022 models, considers a wide range of data points, including polling, economic indicators, political trends, candidate characteristics and campaign finance information. These factors are processed through advanced machine-learning algorithms to deliver accurate and comprehensive insights.

According to the model’s current predictions, Trump holds a slight lead in most swing states and is projected to average 282 electoral votes to Biden’s 256. The single most likely outcome, occurring in 24% of the 14 million simulations run for the model, has Trump winning all seven key battlegrounds and securing a 312 to 226 victory in the Electoral College.

While the model aims to provide accurate and insightful data, its creators emphasize the importance of interpreting the results correctly. Forecasts are not certainties but rather tools to help understand the range of potential outcomes. The public’s role is to engage critically with the analysis and use it to refine their own viewpoints.