With just two weeks left before Election Day, over 15 million Americans have already cast their votes, and Republicans are seeing encouraging early results. Data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab shows that 5 million voters have participated in early in-person voting, while 10 million have submitted their ballots by mail. Of the 56 million mail-in ballot requests, approximately 46 million remain unreturned, meaning voter turnout is likely to surge in the days ahead.

One key takeaway from the early voting data is that Republicans are outperforming Democrats among low-propensity voters in crucial swing states like Arizona and Nevada. In Arizona, Republicans are leading in ballots returned by voters who have historically not participated in elections. This trend could play a significant role in the state’s outcome, potentially tipping the balance in favor of President Donald J. Trump. Nevada shows a similar pattern, with Republicans gaining ground, although Democrats hold an edge in mail-in ballots.

Meanwhile, Pennsylvania has seen slower turnout, particularly among Democrats. Absentee ballot requests from Democrats are down by roughly 1.2 million compared to 2020, while Republicans have experienced a smaller decline of around 250,000. This lag in Democratic participation could be a favorable sign for Republicans in this critical battleground state.

With Election Day approaching and millions of ballots still to be cast, the early signs indicate that Republicans are making strategic gains, particularly by mobilizing voters who could prove decisive in key swing states.